Contribution of Cash Crops to Export Trade in a Middle-Income Country:

Abstract

Understanding the role of cash crop export in strengthening a country’s middle-income class is paramount. Export crop trade data from selected crops between 1995 and 2000 were analysed using Box and Jenkins' model to assess implications for middle-income countries. The Box and Jenkins forecast projected export trade values up to the year 2028. Results indicate that increased exporting of crops and the achievement of middle-income country status have a bidirectional influence. The increase in crop exports influenced middle-income countries status achievement, and middle-income countries status led to more exports of cash crops. The intermediation of Gross National Income was also effective, significantly contributing to crop export and growth of Gross National Income. Further, cashew and sisals crops showed a significant upward trend, thus calling for country crop specific investment strategy. Also, there should be more focus on increase exports crops and policy strategies. Strategic investment and reassessment of market forces and export standards requirements are recommended for further study. The study extends the Ricardian comparative advantage framework by highlighting Tanzania’s stable and positive export performance in sisal and cashew during economic shocks.