Abstract:
Malaria remains a significant cause of death, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, with about 228
million malaria cases worldwide. Parasitological tests, in the form of microscopic and rapid
diagnostic tests (RDT), are the recommended and standard tools for diagnosing malaria.
However, in areas where parasitological tests for malaria are not readily available, clinical
diagnosis is advised. This method is the least expensive and most widely practiced. A clinical
diagnosis called presumptive treatment is based on the patient’s signs and symptoms and
physical findings at the examination. A malaria diagnosis dataset was extracted from patients’
files from four (4) identified health facilities in the regions of Kilimanjaro and Morogoro. These
regions were selected to represent the country’s high endemic areas (Morogoro) and low
endemic areas (Kilimanjaro). The dataset contained 2556 instances and 36 variables. The
random forest classifier, a tree-based, was used to select the most important features for malaria
prediction. Regional-based features were obtained to facilitate accurate prediction. The feature
ranking indicated that fever is universally the most noteworthy feature for predicting malaria,
followed by general body malaise, vomiting and headache. However, these features are ranked
differently across the regional datasets. Subsequently, six predictive models, using important
features selected by the feature selection method, were used to evaluate the performance of the
features. The features identified complies with malaria diagnosis and treatment guide lines
provided by WHO and Tanzania Mainland. The compliance is observed to produce a prediction
model that will fit in the current healthcare provision system.
